The analysis and forecast of the cyclical nature of socio-natural phenomena in the first half of the 21st century

Bushuev Vitaly1, Klepach Andrey2, Soloviev Dmitry1, Sokotushchenko Natalia1

Joint Institute of High Temperatures of the Russian Academy of Sciences (JIT RAS) 2 Institute of Research and Expertise of VEB.RF (Vnesheconombank Institute),,,

Annotation. On the basis of statistics of anomalous socio-natural, political andeconomic phenomena collected from various sources, all crisis events are con-sidered as a manifestation of a certain cyclicality, largely due to periodic pro-cesses of solar activity. In this article, the authors not only analyze the rhythm of these events in the past, but also using a specially developed neural model predict their cyclical manifestation for the coming period – until 2030 – 2050.

Keywords: neural network forecasting, spectral analysis, cycles, crisis