The analysis and forecast of the cyclical nature of socio-natural phenomena in the first half of the 21st century

Bushuev Vitaly¹, Klepach Andrey², Soloviev Dmitry¹, Sokotushchenko Natalia¹

Joint Institute of High Temperatures of the Russian Academy of Sciences (JIT RAS) ² Institute of Research and Expertise of VEB.RF (Vnesheconombank Institute)

vital@guies.ru, klepach.an@gmail.com, solovev@guies.ru, sokotushenko.nat@mail.ru

Annotation. On the basis of statistics of anomalous socio-natural, political andeconomic phenomena collected from various sources, all crisis events are con-sidered as a manifestation of a certain cyclicality, largely due to periodic pro-cesses of solar activity. In this article, the authors not only analyze the rhythm of these events in the past, but also using a specially developed neural model predict their cyclical manifestation for the coming period – until 2030 – 2050.

Keywords: neural network forecasting, spectral analysis, cycles, crisis